d20 Dice Engine — Roll to advance each game
Assigned from each team's Net Rating (NRtg):
| NRtg | Team Quality | TSR |
|---|---|---|
| +25.0 or higher | National Title Favorite | +3 |
| +15.0 to +24.9 | Elite / Top 10 | +2 |
| +5.0 to +14.9 | Tournament Contender | +1 |
| −4.9 to +4.9 | Average / Bubble Team | 0 |
| −5.0 to −14.9 | Low Seed / Upset Potential | −1 |
| −15.0 or lower | Bottom Tier | −2 |
Calculate this before rolling for each team separately.
Roll one d20 per team. Add the modifier to the base score.
| Roll | Modifier | Narrative |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | −18 | Total Collapse: Team shoots <30%. Absolute offensive failure. |
| 2–4 | −10 | Defensive Lock: Opposing big man dominates the paint. |
| 5–9 | −4 | Cold Spell: Star player in foul trouble; rotation is out of sync. |
| 10–14 | +2 | Standard Flow: Trading baskets. Good ball movement. |
| 15–18 | +8 | Heating Up: Hitting the extra-pass 3s. Momentum building. |
| 19 | +14 | On Fire: A massive 12-0 run defines the second half. |
| 20 | +22 | Historic Night: Everything falls. Bench players hitting 3s. |
If scores are tied after regulation, both teams roll again. Apply the same formula but divide the final result by 8 (round up) and add to the regulation score. Repeat if still tied.